ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010 FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BLAS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR OR EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE STORM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH POOR TO FAIR CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE. WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES BLAS OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLING FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HR AND A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/5. BLAS IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 72 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY SHOWING THE CURRENT WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BECOMING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT LIES A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 16.0N 107.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.3N 108.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 16.6N 109.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 16.8N 111.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.9N 112.8W 30 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 17.0N 116.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 23/1200Z 16.0N 122.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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