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Tropical Depression TWO-E (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022010
800 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY CHANGED
LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 25 KT... IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. A 2318 UTC SSMIS PASS AND A 2003 AMSR-E PASS
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
EDGE OF A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...BASED ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE
FIXES...AND THE 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/6. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THIS TRACK FORECAST
IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS ONE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FEELING SOME EFFECTS OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...BASED ON ITS SATELLITE PRESENTATION. HOWEVER...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IF CORRECT COULD ALLOW
STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER
AND REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INITIAL
SHEAR...POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND CURRENT LACK
OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 15.2N  96.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 15.6N  97.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 15.8N  98.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 16.1N  99.6W    40 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 16.4N 100.7W    45 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
 
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