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Hurricane TOMAS (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE TOMAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 31 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       1       5       9      11
TROP DEPRESSION  1       5       9      10       9       7       5
TROPICAL STORM  69      75      67      55      49      29      26
HURRICANE       31      20      23      33      36      55      57
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       29      17      19      25      25      31      28
HUR CAT 2        2       2       2       6       7      15      15
HUR CAT 3        X       1       1       2       3       8      12
HUR CAT 4        1       X       X       1       1       2       2
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   60KT    55KT    55KT    60KT    65KT    80KT    90KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   9(20)   5(25)   4(29)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)
PT GALLINAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CURACAO        34  1   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   6(14)   3(17)   3(20)
CURACAO        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
CURACAO        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   9(17)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   9(21)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   8(18)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)   9(24)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  10(16)   9(25)   9(34)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   8(16)   8(24)   7(31)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GONAIVES       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   8(18)   8(26)
GONAIVES       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)
GONAIVES       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   3( 3)   8(11)   8(19)   9(28)   7(35)   4(39)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   4(10)   2(12)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   6(14)   8(22)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   5(17)   6(23)   5(28)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PONCE          34  4   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   2(12)   3(15)   5(20)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SAN JUAN       34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   3(11)   5(16)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   5(14)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   5(14)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   4( 8)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   4( 8)
 
BARBUDA        34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)
 
ANTIGUA        34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   3( 6)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)
 
AVES           34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
DOMINICA       34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
NNNN                                                                

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