| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm TOMAS (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010               
0300 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       1       2       6
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       1       1       2       2       5
TROPICAL STORM  52      22      12      13      17      17      26
HURRICANE       48      78      87      87      80      78      63
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       44      60      44      37      34      29      29
HUR CAT 2        3      13      29      28      23      23      18
HUR CAT 3        1       4      12      17      17      19      13
HUR CAT 4        1       1       3       5       5       6       3
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       1       1       1       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   65KT    75KT    85KT    90KT    95KT   100KT   100KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   9(24)   4(28)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
PT GALLINAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)  13(21)   2(23)   1(24)
CURACAO        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
CURACAO        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  10(22)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  14(29)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  23(32)   9(41)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   4(17)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  18(32)   5(37)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
GONAIVES       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  14(21)   5(26)
GONAIVES       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
GONAIVES       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  31(33)  15(48)   4(52)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)   2(21)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   3(19)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)   6(29)   3(32)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)   7(24)   1(25)   X(25)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   5(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   4( 4)  10(14)   6(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  2   6( 8)   7(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
BARBUDA        34  2   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ANTIGUA        34  3   6( 9)   4(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  4  14(18)   6(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
AVES           34  3  28(31)  29(60)   2(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
AVES           50  X   2( 2)  14(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOMINICA       34  9  39(48)   3(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
DOMINICA       50  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MARTINIQUE     34 42  33(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
MARTINIQUE     50  1  15(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34 75  21(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
SAINT LUCIA    50 15  60(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
SAINT LUCIA    64  1  25(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34 70  27(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
SAINT VINCENT  50 11  60(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
SAINT VINCENT  64  1  26(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
BARBADOS       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BARBADOS       50 85   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
BARBADOS       64 16   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
GRENADA        34  6  20(26)   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
GRENADA        50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  4   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
PORT OF SPAIN  34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     
NNNN                                                                

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:25 UTC