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Hurricane PAULA (Text)


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HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
1745 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  85.8W AT 12/1745Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  45SE  45SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  85.8W AT 12/1745Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  85.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.9N  86.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.0N  86.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.5N  86.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.0N  86.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N  85.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.5N  84.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  85.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:21 UTC