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Tropical Storm MATTHEW (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING MATTHEW THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME ANY STRONGER. EASTERLY SHEAR HAS
KEPT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A ROUND BLOB
OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE AND
MICROWAVE DATA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SO
FAR SUGGEST THAT THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS. MATTHEW ONLY HAS
12 HOURS OR LESS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...AND GIVEN THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECAST MATTHEW TO BECOME
A HURRICANE.
 
THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KNOTS.
MATTHEW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  BEYOND TWO
DAYS...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER CONTINUES WESTWARD AND DISSIPATES...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND BECOMES PART OF A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SUCH A WEATHER PATTERN
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS TORRENTIAL RAINS IN CENTRAL AMERICA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 14.4N  82.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.6N  84.2W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 15.4N  86.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N  89.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 17.0N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N  90.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 18.5N  90.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/1200Z 18.5N  90.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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