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Tropical Depression LISA (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
500 AM AST SUN SEP 26 2010
 
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE A TOLL ON LISA AS THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A SMALL AREA
OF REMAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 30 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES
AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.  THE SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND COOL
SSTS...SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND LISA IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12-24 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/8.  A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE NEAR NORTHWESTERN
AFRICA.  THE GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 25.1N  29.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 26.0N  29.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 27.2N  30.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 28.5N  30.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 29.8N  31.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 31.5N  31.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 32.0N  31.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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