ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IGOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2010 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 1 TROPICAL STORM X X X 1 2 5 13 HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 98 94 85 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 3 6 17 30 HUR CAT 2 1 4 5 10 13 21 23 HUR CAT 3 12 35 27 34 33 34 22 HUR CAT 4 80 52 53 40 34 19 8 HUR CAT 5 7 8 14 14 12 4 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 125KT 125KT 130KT 130KT 135KT 125KT 120KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:15 UTC