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Tropical Storm IGOR (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
500 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010
 
 
IGOR IS STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...THERE WAS A PERIOD FOR ABOUT TWO
HOURS...BETWEEN 04 AND 06 UTC THAT A SMALL EYE-LIKE FEATURE BECAME
APPARENT ON SATELLITE. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN...SUCH FEATURE HAS
BECOME INTERMITTENT...OTHERWISE I COULD HAVE DECLARED IGOR A
HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED...THE
OVERALL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED A LITTLE AND NOW CONSISTS OF TWO
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. BASED ON A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH
ARE 4.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND...THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ALL OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR IGOR TO
INTENSIFY...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR IGOR TO BE AN INTENSE
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT IGOR COULD
ALSO BECOME LARGE.   
 
IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS.
THIS IS BASED ON THE MOTION OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND CONTINUITY.
THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL
MODELS TO PERSIST. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. BY THEN...IGOR
WILL BE REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WHERE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAKER...AND BEGIN TO APPROACH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE
IGOR TO SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND
BIASED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. 
  
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 17.1N  37.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.1N  40.2W    70 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 17.2N  43.1W    75 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 17.4N  46.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 17.5N  48.5W    90 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.5N  52.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N  55.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N  59.0W   100 KT
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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