ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010 730 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS JUST COMPLETED ITS RECONNAISSANCE MISSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEY CONFIRMED THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION WAS PRESENT...AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL SOLUTION SHOWS MORE THAN MODEST STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS AT TIMES. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. SINCE THE CENTER IS STILL A BIT BROAD...THE INITIAL MOTION... 315/05...IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD PRODUCE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED SO CLOSE TO THE TIME OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT 0300 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2330Z 26.0N 84.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 26.8N 85.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 28.1N 87.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 29.7N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 92.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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