ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 800 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009 BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MAZATLAN MEXICO AND SATELLITE IMAGES...THE CENTER OF RICK HAS CROSSED THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE STATION REPORTED WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 1200 UTC TO THE SOUTHWEST MORE RECENTLY. IN ADDITION...THIS SITE MEASURED A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 KT WITH GUSTS TO 53 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990 MB NEAR 1200 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT. ONCE THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY INLAND...RICK IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 40 KT. A 0900 UTC AMSR-E PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE HELPED TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS INCREASED AND RICK IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 23.4N 106.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 24.8N 104.4W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:31 UTC