ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 03 2009 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OLAF IS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS APPARENT IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES. THIS DECOUPLED STRUCTURE IS DUE TO ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... ACCORDING TO ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. A 0532 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. BASED ON THIS PASS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...OLAF IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT 30 KT. DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...OLAF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. OLAF IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED AND IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE AT 010/3. OLAF WILL SHORTLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY...AND ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES INTO DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING OLAF OR ITS REMNANTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 24.1N 117.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 25.3N 116.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 26.5N 114.4W 25 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 27.5N 111.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:29 UTC