ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162009 800 AM PDT THU SEP 17 2009 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY AND THE OVERALL SHAPE HAS BECOME ELONGATED. AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0913 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. MARTY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THESE NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS MARTY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48 HOURS. MARTY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AS MARTY WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE HWRF...AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE HWRF KEEPS MARTY A DEEP SYSTEM AND MOVES IT INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS MODEL IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 19.7N 113.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 20.3N 113.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 21.1N 113.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 22.0N 114.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 22.8N 115.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 20/1200Z 23.8N 117.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 21/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC