ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009 200 PM PDT THU SEP 10 2009 A 1623 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS RETRIEVED FROM THE NRL MONTEREY TROPICAL CYCLONE WEBSITE INDICATES A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY ENCLOSED SURFACE EYEWALL. SUBSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE EYEWALL AT THE SURFACE HAS ERODED...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 65 KT...AND AN EARLIER SATCON ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE CYCLONE HAD REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. BASED ON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION TRENDS AND ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT. LINDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN WATERS. THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE AROUND MID PERIOD...FURTHER ACCENTUATING THE WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 340/08...WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF LINDA AND A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...LINDA SHOULD COMMENCE A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT WITHIN THE PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND AGREES WITH THE TVCN DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 19.4N 130.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 20.5N 130.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 21.6N 131.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 22.3N 132.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 22.6N 132.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 23.0N 133.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 23.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/1800Z 24.0N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:27 UTC