ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009 200 AM PDT MON SEP 07 2009 THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH INCREASE IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WE HAVE OBSERVED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS WRAPPED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON RESPECTIVELY. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0230 UTC SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH HIGHEST NON-RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT. BASED ON THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS BEING UPGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. MOREOVER THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND THE PRESENCE OF A NEIGHBORING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK INDICATES THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...PERHAPS AT A FASTER RATE THAN SHOWN HERE. INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER SLOW 285/7. A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130W-140W LONGITUDE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 15.5N 125.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 15.8N 126.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 16.2N 128.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 16.5N 129.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 16.9N 129.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 18.5N 131.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 12/0600Z 23.5N 134.5W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:26 UTC