ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009 JIMENA CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUITE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ON INFRARED IMAGES...THE EYE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT...SUGGESTIVE OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T 6.0 FROM BOTH AGENCIES BUT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT A STRONGER HURRICANE ...PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE WARMER EYE. THEREFORE THE NHC INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BOOSTED TO 120 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND MOIST TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS COULD ALSO BE HALTED AT ANY TIME BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH. BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR JIMENA. THE RESULTING INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALSO BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES...TYPICAL OF THE MOVEMENT OF INTENSE HURRICANES...BUT THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 295/07. THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA SEEMS TO DEPEND LARGELY UPON THE EVOLUTION OF TWO MAIN FACTORS...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IF THE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS...IT WOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD AND COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO VEER WESTWARD AWAY FROM BAJA. THAT APPEARS TO BE THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS ARE THE WESTERN OUTLIERS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS...THE HWRF...AND THE GFDL INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE HURRICANE...SO THAT JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACKS. INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 16.6N 106.8W 120 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 17.3N 107.7W 125 KT 24HR VT 31/1800Z 18.7N 108.7W 125 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 20.6N 110.0W 125 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 22.6N 110.8W 115 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 26.5N 112.5W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 03/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 50 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 04/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:24 UTC