ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JIMENA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 600 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF JIMENA. EXTREMELY DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE CENTER OF THE STORM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A 0844 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THAT JIMENA HAD DEVELOPED A SMALL EYE. IN ADDITION...A WARM SPOT IS NOW APPARENT ON CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THE TAFB/SAB CLASSIFICATIONS...AND IF THE EYE PERSISTS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A HURRICANE IN SHORT ORDER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF/GFDL MODELS...WHICH ALL SHOW VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...OR SOONER. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGES IN THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST ARE BEING MADE AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1300Z 14.2N 102.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 14.4N 103.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 14.9N 104.8W 80 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 15.4N 106.1W 90 KT 48HR VT 31/0600Z 16.4N 107.3W 100 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 19.5N 110.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 03/0600Z 25.5N 114.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:24 UTC