ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2009 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF GUILLERMO REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE CLARITY OF THE EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS VARIED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 5.5 FROM TAFB AND 5.0 FROM SAB AT 0600 UTC...WHILE THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 6.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL THE CYCLONE IS NOW OVER SSTS OF LESS THAN 26C...AND WILL CROSS THE 25C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING LATER TODAY...AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING ABOVE 20 KT AFTER THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND LGEM AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND...AS THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE UNREALISTICALLY INTENSE WITH THE CYCLONE AT THAT TIME RANGE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14 AND THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT FORMS NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...TOWARD THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0230 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 0545 UTC ASCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 18.7N 131.9W 100 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 19.2N 134.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 19.8N 136.5W 85 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 20.4N 139.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 21.2N 141.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 23.0N 146.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 25.0N 151.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 27.5N 157.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC