ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009 200 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009 THE DEPRESSION IS EXHIBITING GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE...ALBEIT AT A LARGE RADIUS FROM THE CENTER...AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z WERE T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE...I AM INCLINED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 30 KT...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD NOT BE LONG BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK DROP BELOW 26C BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/15. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE STEERING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 15.8N 117.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 16.5N 119.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 17.0N 122.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 17.5N 125.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 17.8N 128.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 133.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 19.0N 139.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 19.0N 146.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC