ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009 800 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE THIS MORNING WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH IS MAINTAINING JUST ENOUGH CONVECTION TO KEEP IT FROM BEING CONSIDERED A REMNANT LOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS FAIRLY DRY...AND WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT CONVERGENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS DOES THE GFDL. IN THE CASE OF SHIPS THE DRIVING PREDICTOR IS THE SST POTENTIAL...BUT THIS IS IN FACT NO LESS FAVORABLE NOW THAN IT WILL BE IN FIVE DAYS...SO I AM SKEPTICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AID ICON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/12. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE TRACK BECOMES LESS CLEAR BEYOND THAT POINT...AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. OF COURSE...THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH OR DEEP ENOUGH TO FEEL THESE INFLUENCES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE IN DIRECTION...AND IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND HWRF. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFDL SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO ITS EAST...AND CONSEQUENTLY INDICATE A MUCH SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO THE NORTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 14.6N 132.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 14.4N 134.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 14.0N 136.2W 25 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 13.5N 138.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 13.2N 139.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 13.0N 142.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 145.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 13.0N 148.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:21 UTC