ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 200 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009 DESPITE A LIMITED STRENGTHENING IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE THINKING OF RAPIDLY WEAKENING ENRIQUE AS IT ENCOUNTERS GREATER SHEAR AND COOLER SST AT PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER LATITUDES. FELICIA IS INGESTING MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LEAVING ENRIQUE WITH A WANING MOISTURE SOURCE FROM THE EAST. THE INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AND ASYMMETRICAL CENTER WAS ANALYZED AT 18Z NORTH OF A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION...AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADANT WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORBALE. FARTHER WEST...VISIBLE SATELLITE CLEARLY SHOWS FELICIA HAVING A DELETERIOUS EFFECT ON ENRIQUE...AND HWRF/GHM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY RAPID DISSIPATION WITHIN 36 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE ENERGY WILL BE ABSORBED INTO FELICIA. ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN FELICIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS ARE INDICATING A FUJIWHARA EFFECT OWING TO FELICIA THAT WILL GRADUALLY TURN THE MOTION ALMOST DUE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOST MODELS DO NOT KEEP THE CYCLONE INTACT BEYOND 24-36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 18.4N 123.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 20.3N 127.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 20.8N 130.3W 25 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER SOWKO NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:20 UTC