ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009 200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009 THE LOW LEVEL-CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS A DISORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO FIND EVEN USING THE AMBIGUITIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THE CONVECTION IS VANISHING AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE ASSUMING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COLLOCATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL AND THE T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SAME AS 00 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION. BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATER...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY. THEREAFTER...DOLORES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. DOLORES APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE BIT FASTER AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS DOLORES WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS KEEPING THE CYCLONE OR THE LOW ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...BUT THE MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGER THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOLLOWING THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 18.2N 119.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 124.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 22.0N 127.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 24.5N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/0600Z 26.0N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:19 UTC