ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009 200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO ITS EAST. THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES...BUT WE KNOW IT IS NOT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME...AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA. IN FACT....A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER COULD BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED AND EVEN MORE REMOVED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR IN TWO DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL PERSIST AND SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND HEAVILY BIAS ON THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.2N 114.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 15.2N 115.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.7N 118.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 120.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 123.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 21.5N 136.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 20/0600Z 21.5N 141.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:19 UTC