ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 500 AM AST SAT SEP 12 2009 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED HAS SHEARED APART THIS MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION AT LEAST 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER. A 0358Z AQUA MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED BELIEVABLE WINDS OF 40-45 KT...AND ASSUMING SOME SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. THERE IS NO REASON TO FORECAST ANYTHING BUT CONTINUED WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...MARGINAL WATER TEMPERATURES AND A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. FRED WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF REGENERATION IN THE LONG-TERM AS THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER...THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF FRED AT THAT TIME TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. THEREAFTER FRED...OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF...IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND WEST-NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BESIDES THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH HAS DISPLAYED A SOUTHWARD BIAS FOR THIS STORM...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATH. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 17.8N 33.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.0N 33.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 18.6N 33.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 35.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0600Z 20.5N 37.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/0600Z 22.5N 42.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/0600Z 24.0N 48.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 17/0600Z 25.5N 53.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:09 UTC