ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 AN AIR FORCE PLANE WENT INTO NORBERT AROUND 2100 UTC AND FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 67 KT...AND AN EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT ON SATELLITE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT IN LINE WITH TAFB/SAB CLASSIFICATIONS. THE PLANE ALSO FOUND THE CENTER A LITTLE WEST OF THE SATELLITE FIXES...SO I'M GOING TO LEAN A LITTLE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL IN AN HOUR OR TWO...AND A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OF NORBERT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE FROM NORBERT SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INCIDENTALLY...THE CIMSS ADT TECHNIQUE EARLIER ESTIMATED A PRESSURE OF 957.5 MB RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL IN BAJA...SO THAT PRESSURE ESTIMATE APPEARED TO MATCH NICELY WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 26.5N 109.5W 75 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 28.6N 107.6W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:45 UTC