ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008 MARIE IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. BOTH MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN FACT...AN EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM. BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED MAKING THE ATMOSPHERE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BUT THE OCEAN REMAINS MARGINAL. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ANY TIME TODAY AND ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. IN A DAY OR SO...THE OCEAN ALONG MARIE'S PATH WILL BE COOLER AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. MARIE IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING WESTWARD WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF MARIE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO INDICATED BY TRACK GUIDANCE BUT MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 2 OR 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 17.7N 122.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 17.8N 122.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 17.9N 123.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 18.3N 123.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 18.5N 124.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:43 UTC