ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122008 200 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2008 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER IS SEPARATED ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BUT BASED ON THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND KARIN COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. KARINA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHIN THE LOW-LAYER FLOW OF A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING WESTWARD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. AFTERWARD...DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A MORE SOUTHWEST DRIFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE UKMET. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.0N 113.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.1N 114.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.1N 115.3W 25 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/0600Z 19.8N 116.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:41 UTC