ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122008 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KARINA HAS WEAKENED AND THE CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DROPPING...THUS THE WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 30 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE UPPER WINDS ONLY LESSENING A BIT IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS FROM THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE A RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE DEPRESSION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW DROP IN INTENSITY...AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. KARINA MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE FORECAST IF CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS PERSIST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6. SOME RIDGING IS FORECAST NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. ASSUMING THAT KARINA REMAINS WEAK...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY CAUSE A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IN FEW DAYS...AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF KARINA COULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SEEN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 20.0N 112.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 20.4N 113.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 20.7N 115.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 20.7N 115.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:41 UTC