ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102008 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008 ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ISELLE HAS DISSIPATED AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME LEFTOVER MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CONVECTIONLESS CIRCULATION GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN. IN FACT...ISELLE APPEARS TO BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO REMNANT LOW STATUS...PERHAPS LATER TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW MOVING WITH THE SHALLOW STEERING RESULTING IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR 340/04. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF ISELLE ENCOUNTER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 18.7N 111.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 19.1N 111.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 17/0600Z 19.6N 112.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/0600Z 20.3N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/0600Z 20.5N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:40 UTC