ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092008 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2008 A 1436 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT HERNAN HAD A SMALL AREA OF 40 KT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THEN...DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HERNAN CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOL OCEAN WATERS. HERNAN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF CONVECTION. HERNAN IS GRADUALLY MAKING A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 260/8. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH A WESTWARD TURN FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS ONCE HERNAN BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW. DISSIPATION AS A CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED BY DAY 4...A LITTLE LATER THAN INDICATED BY SHIPS AND SIMILAR TO THAT INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 18.4N 134.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 18.2N 135.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 17.7N 136.6W 25 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 17.2N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/1800Z 16.5N 139.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/1800Z 15.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/BROWN NNNN
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