ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008 AN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY...BUT A SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 1253Z THAT JUST CAME IN REVEALS ABOUT HALF OF AN EYEWALL HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE A CONSENSUS 65 KT...AND COMBINED WITH THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE PROVIDE ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT FAUSTO HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...THE THIRD OF THE 2008 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...WITH NOT MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RATHER WARM SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNSURPRISING 285/11. FEW CHANGES TO THE MOTION ARE INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT TEMPORARILY IN A DAY OR TWO AS A LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA...BUT THE MODELS INDICATE IT WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ON DAYS 3-5. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS...BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS MOSTLY A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 13.6N 108.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 14.0N 109.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 14.7N 110.7W 85 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 15.7N 112.1W 85 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.7N 113.9W 85 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 21.5N 127.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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