ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008 AN ASCAT OVERPASS RETRIEVED THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT ELIDA HAS NOT YET WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE REMAINS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PARTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION THAT MAY STILL CONTAIN 35 KT WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH ULTIMATELY SHOULD REDUCE ELIDA TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS. THIS WEAKENING IS REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A CONSISTENT 280/12...WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS PERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 18.2N 129.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 18.1N 131.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.9N 134.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 20/1200Z 17.7N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 21/0000Z 17.5N 139.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 22/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN NNNN
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