ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 800 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS NO EYE ON INFRARED BUT THERE IS VERY STRONG CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT. ELIDA CONTINUES SOUTH OF A STRONG AND PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUE TO FORECAST ELIDA ON A WESTWARD TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 16.7N 116.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 118.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 17.8N 124.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 18.0N 126.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.1N 136.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/1200Z 18.0N 141.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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