ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 0316 ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM...WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATED SET AT 35 KT. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY COLD -80C CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE PERPLEXING. BOTH DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE ELIDA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. THE SUPER ENSEMBLE IS SORT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...SUGGESTING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 3 DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...LGEM AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH ELIDA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE PERIOD....COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A BIT SLOWER NOW...300/12...WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL MODELS REFLECT A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ECMWF...GFDL...THE FSSE SUPER ENSEMBLE AND THE GFS BAMM AND BAMD TRAJECTORY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 12.5N 96.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 13.3N 98.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 14.2N 100.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 15.0N 102.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 15.7N 104.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 108.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
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