ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008 MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF BORIS IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS...BUT CONVECTION REMAINS ASYMMETRIC. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SO INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF MEXICO WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLOW. IN FACT...THE GFS ABSORBS BORIS INTO THE NEW DISTURBANCE. THIS WOULD DISCOURAGE TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. IN ADDITION...SHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BORIS MAINLY DUE TO DRY STABLE AIR APPROACHING THE CYCLONE. ONLY THE GFDL AND HWFR MODELS STRENGTHEN BORIS IN THE NEAR TERM BUT THEN WEAKEN IT THEREAFTER. THEREFORE...THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BORIS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW DISTURBANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. BY DAY 3...BORIS SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH...SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FORECAST AN EASTWARD TURN ASSUMING THAT BORIS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE NEW DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 15.0N 116.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 15.0N 117.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 15.0N 119.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 15.0N 120.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 15.0N 122.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 124.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/1200Z 15.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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