ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BORIS HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD NORTH OF BORIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUCH A PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A NEW CYCLONE COULD FORM EAST OF BORIS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE STEERING. IN FACT...THE GFS MODEL SHOWS BORIS LOOPING BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DUE TO THIS SCENARIO. SINCE THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. BORIS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS CAUSING THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG OR EVEN INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS LIMITING BORIS'S DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN A DAY OR SO BUT BY THIS POINT BORIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 14.9N 114.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 115.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 15.1N 117.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 15.2N 119.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 15.3N 120.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 15.5N 124.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 03/0000Z 15.5N 127.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 04/0000Z 15.5N 129.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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