ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008 200 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR A FEW DAYS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND WITH AN ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. BEYOND 3 DAYS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES. IN GENERAL...NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST EITHER WEAKENING OR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR A DAY OR SO. THEN...IT COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS A STRONGER MIDDLE- LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF TRACK GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 12.0N 108.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 12.4N 109.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 12.7N 111.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 13.0N 113.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 13.5N 115.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 13.5N 118.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 01/0600Z 13.5N 122.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 02/0600Z 13.5N 126.0W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:30 UTC