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HURRICANE PALOMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1500 UTC SAT NOV 08 2008
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 3 12 33 41 49
TROP DEPRESSION X X 15 30 35 32 27
TROPICAL STORM X 6 63 50 29 24 21
HURRICANE 99 94 19 8 4 3 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 28 15 6 3 3 2
HUR CAT 2 13 24 2 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 3 69 33 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 4 14 9 X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 1 1 X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110KT 85KT 60KT 45KT 30KT 25KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
MARATHON FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 1(13)
ANDROS 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 3(15) 2(17) 1(18)
ANDROS 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 1 9(10) 11(21) 4(25) 4(29) 1(30) 1(31)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAN SALVADOR 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 5(18) 1(19) 1(20)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MAYAGUANA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 4(16) 1(17) 1(18)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
HAVANA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11)
CAMAGUEY 34 73 12(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
CAMAGUEY 50 16 27(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
CAMAGUEY 64 2 16(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 23(25) 8(33) 3(36) 1(37) 1(38) 1(39)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
MONTEGO BAY 34 11 7(18) 3(21) 1(22) 1(23) 1(24) 1(25)
MONTEGO BAY 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
KINGSTON 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13)
LES CAYES 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:28 UTC