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Hurricane PALOMA (Text)

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HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
400 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT PALOMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
FALLING TO 950 MB.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 122 KT...AND TWO ESTIMATES OF 105 KT FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 110 KT.  THIS INTENSITY IS LESS THAN THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KT FROM TAFB AND 127 KT FROM SAB...WHICH
SUGGESTS PALOMA COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 050/06.  PALOMA IS BEING STEERED
NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME.  AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK
CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH
OF PALOMA.  WHILE THIS HAPPENS...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF PALOMA.  IF THIS FORECAST EVOLUTION IS
CORRECT...BY 96-120 HR IT WOULD LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  THE MOST LIKELY RESULT OF THIS WOULD BE FOR
PALOMA TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS SOME SORT OF WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72
HR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SPREAD AMONGST THE MODEL 120 HR POSITIONS
THAT RANGES FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO SOUTHWEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.  THE TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE HWRF...WHICH
FORECAST PALOMA TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT IT DOES NOT GET
CAUGHT UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  SINCE THIS COULD HAPPEN IF
PALOMA MAINTAINS SOME VERTICAL INTEGRITY...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
WILL NOT FULLY FOLLOW THE WESTWARD MOTION FORECASTS.  INSTEAD...IT
SHOWS ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SHOW THAT PALOMA
HAS ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS TO STRENGTHEN.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTH-WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THE JET DATA SHOW WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING
ON THE HURRICANE BETWEEN 250-500 MB.  THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO
ABOUT 40 KT IN ABOUT 24 HR AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE PALOMA TO STEADILY WEAKEN...
WITH THE WEAKENING BEING ACCELERATED BY PASSAGE OVER CUBA IN 24-36
HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...CALLING FOR PALOMA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 48
HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR.  IT IS POSSIBLE THE CYCLONE COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HR. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 19.5N  80.1W   110 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 20.1N  79.4W   110 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 20.8N  78.2W    95 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 21.4N  77.2W    65 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 21.8N  76.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 22.5N  76.0W    35 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 23.0N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     13/0600Z 23.0N  76.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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