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HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC SAT SEP 06 2008
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS
...110 MPH...175 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 6 15
TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 X 1 6 9
TROPICAL STORM X 2 8 5 11 24 17
HURRICANE 99 98 91 95 87 64 59
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 9 14 17 19 23 26 20
HUR CAT 2 57 36 26 28 22 19 15
HUR CAT 3 31 41 36 33 27 14 16
HUR CAT 4 2 7 10 12 13 4 7
HUR CAT 5 1 1 2 2 3 1 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 95KT 100KT 105KT 95KT 80KT 90KT 100KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 4(15)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 5(22)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 4(22)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) 3(26)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 7(29) 4(33)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 2(10)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 8(40) 4(44)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 3(18)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 9(52) 4(56)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 5(26) 2(28)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 2(15)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) 11(52) 4(56)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) 3(30)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 2(16)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 10(38) 6(44)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 3(19)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 11(33) 6(39)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) 7(35)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 7(28)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 7(20)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 9(24)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 4(25) 2(27)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 15(35) 1(36) 2(38)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) 1(14)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 22(36) 15(51) 2(53) 1(54)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) 2(23) X(23)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X 7( 7) 31(38) 11(49) 6(55) X(55) X(55)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 3(22) X(22) 1(23)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12)
SAN SALVADOR 34 1 9(10) 17(27) 5(32) 3(35) X(35) 1(36)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 7 67(74) 7(81) 1(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83)
MAYAGUANA 50 1 31(32) 11(43) X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44)
MAYAGUANA 64 X 13(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
GRAND TURK 34 87 11(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
GRAND TURK 50 39 48(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
GRAND TURK 64 14 50(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) 6(29)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 36(42) 12(54) 4(58)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 8(27) 2(29)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 8(40) 3(43)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) 2(21)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 35(58) 6(64) 2(66)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 3(34) 1(35)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) 1(18)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 35(62) 12(74) 2(76) 1(77)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 13(46) 1(47) X(47)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 14(15) 39(54) 8(62) 2(64) 1(65) X(65)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 2( 2) 20(22) 8(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 4(22) 3(25)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 7(22) 2(24) X(24)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LES CAYES 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) 1(16)
CAPE BEATA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
PUERTO PLATA 34 23 15(38) 2(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
PUERTO PLATA 50 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:21 UTC