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Tropical Storm IKE (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       X       1       1
TROP DEPRESSION  1       2       2       1       3       2       2
TROPICAL STORM  82      58      32      26      23      19      23
HURRICANE       17      40      67      72      74      78      74
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       16      36      48      42      34      30      27
HUR CAT 2        1       3      14      19      22      23      20
HUR CAT 3        X       1       4       9      14      19      18
HUR CAT 4        X       1       1       2       4       6       8
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       1       1       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    60KT    70KT    75KT    80KT    85KT    90KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  14(21)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
SAN JUAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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