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Tropical Depression THREE (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE AND IS NEARING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  RADAR VELOCITY DATA FROM CHARLESTON AND
WILMINGTON SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING BETTER-
DEFINED AND INCREASING. IN ADDITION...SHIP PDNN REPORTED 30 KT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 1200 UTC.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
KEPT AT 30 KT IN THIS ADVISORY AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND 1700 UTC TO
DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
 
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. SURPRISINGLY...
NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE HWRF SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THE
DEPRESSION.  WE'RE INCLINED TO THINK THAT SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
LIKELY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...SO A SLOW INCREASE IN
WINDS IS INDICATED...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/SHIFOR GUIDANCE.
 
DATA FROM BUOY 41004 HAS BEEN HELPFUL IN TRACKING THE DEPRESSION...
WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE TO THE EAST.  BEST ESTIMATE
OF INITIAL MOTION IS 050/6.  A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM IN THIS
GENERAL DIRECTION AND AT A SIMILAR SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
THEREAFTER... THE DEPRESSION WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN A STRONGER
STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
DEEPENING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA
COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY DUE TO
THE CENTER REFORMATION...AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 32.6N  78.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 33.3N  77.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 34.2N  76.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 35.1N  75.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 36.5N  73.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 40.5N  68.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
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FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
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