ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 200 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2007 DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER FROM THE CONVECTIVE BURST LAST NIGHT HAS CLEARED OUT...LEAVING AN UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS YIELDS A MUCH MORE CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/8...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE AND JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND NEARLY ALL MODELS SUGGEST A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT KIKO IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO REMNANT LOW STATUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT AND SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A VERY DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 19.5N 109.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.3N 111.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 19.2N 113.6W 25 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 19.1N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/1800Z 19.3N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/1800Z 20.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC