ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 800 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2007 CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED WITH THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS A SINGLE RAGGED BAND ABOUT 120 NMI TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WITH SMALL AND BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS CLOSER TO THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 18Z...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER...THE MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS IT APPEARS THAT THE MEAN CENTER HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND ARE CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE AT LOW LEVELS AND MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER-LEVELS. THERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE NET FLOW ACROSS THE CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE EASTERLY SHEAR...THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN NEAR ITS CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SPREAD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...A COMMON THEME IS A CONTINUATION OF A CYCLONIC LOOP...ENDING WITH SOME NET WESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...ALSO SHOWS A SMALL LOOP...BUT WITH LITTLE NET DISPLACEMENT OVER THE FIVE DAY PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...AND IS NOT FAR FROM THE STABLE STRATO-CUMULUS FIELD TO THE WEST AND NORTH. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ABOUT HOW THE UPPER EASTERLIES ARE GOING TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE SHEAR...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET LESSEN IT SOMEWHAT. BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL BRING THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 50 KT...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE GFS/SHIPS SCENARIO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 14.7N 109.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 14.7N 109.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 14.5N 108.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.8N 108.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 14.9N 108.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 15.2N 109.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 15.5N 110.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC