ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2007 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED JUST WEST OF THE CENTER FOR 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THIS PATTERN HAS YIELDED DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON THIS DATA. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD RELAX A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ALLOWING SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN IN 2-3 DAYS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT OR EVEN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS THOUGHT TO BE A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AT 360/2. THE EVENTUAL TRACK IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE. A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO MOVE EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. CONVERSELY...A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO MOVE WESTWARD...ALBEIT SLOWLY...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG 22N LATITUDE. SINCE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OPTIMAL FOR STRENGTHENING...A VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 15.0N 108.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.2N 108.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.4N 108.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 15.7N 107.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 16.5N 107.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 109.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:06 UTC