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HURRICANE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
0300 UTC THU SEP 20 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 4(19) 2(21)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 2(19)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 1(14)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 8(10) 11(21) 7(28) 5(33) 1(34) 1(35)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
ISLA CLARION 34 5 37(42) 16(58) 7(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67)
ISLA CLARION 50 X 11(11) 10(21) 4(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27)
ISLA CLARION 64 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 169N 1132W 34 92 4(96) X(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
12 169N 1132W 50 57 14(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
12 169N 1132W 64 26 11(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
24 180N 1135W 34 41 42(83) 5(88) 2(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91)
24 180N 1135W 50 4 42(46) 8(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57)
24 180N 1135W 64 1 19(20) 6(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
36 190N 1135W 34 4 48(52) 19(71) 5(76) 2(78) 1(79) X(79)
36 190N 1135W 50 X 15(15) 19(34) 7(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43)
36 190N 1135W 64 X 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
48 200N 1130W 34 1 16(17) 30(47) 13(60) 7(67) 1(68) X(68)
48 200N 1130W 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 11(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29)
48 200N 1130W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
72 215N 1120W 34 1 2( 3) 9(12) 16(28) 14(42) 3(45) X(45)
72 215N 1120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15)
72 215N 1120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
96 225N 1110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 13(24) 5(29) 1(30)
96 225N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
96 225N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
120 240N 1100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14)
120 240N 1100W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
120 240N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70 75 75 70 60 50 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC