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TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
0900 UTC WED SEP 19 2007
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 8(21) 4(25) X(25)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 16(37) 11(48) 4(52) 1(53)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 7(19) 1(20) 1(21)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 154N 1112W 34 64 13(77) 1(78) 1(79) 1(80) 1(81) X(81)
12 154N 1112W 50 28 13(41) 1(42) X(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43)
12 154N 1112W 64 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
24 164N 1125W 34 1 54(55) 12(67) 4(71) 1(72) 1(73) X(73)
24 164N 1125W 50 X 22(22) 10(32) 2(34) 1(35) 1(36) X(36)
24 164N 1125W 64 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
36 173N 1134W 34 X 19(19) 35(54) 8(62) 3(65) 2(67) X(67)
36 173N 1134W 50 X 3( 3) 19(22) 5(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31)
36 173N 1134W 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
48 182N 1138W 34 X 4( 4) 31(35) 14(49) 10(59) 2(61) X(61)
48 182N 1138W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) 6(24) 1(25) X(25)
48 182N 1138W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10)
72 200N 1135W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 18(38) 5(43) X(43)
72 200N 1135W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 2(15) X(15)
72 200N 1135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
96 210N 1125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 16(24) 6(30) 1(31)
96 210N 1125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
96 210N 1125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
120 215N 1120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 13(18) 6(24) 2(26)
120 215N 1120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
120 215N 1120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55 60 65 65 60 55 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC