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TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
0300 UTC WED SEP 19 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 3(15) X(15)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 19(37) 12(49) 3(52) X(52)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 152N 1110W 34 26 23(49) 2(51) 1(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53)
12 152N 1110W 50 8 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
12 152N 1110W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 160N 1127W 34 X 36(36) 19(55) 3(58) 2(60) 1(61) X(61)
24 160N 1127W 50 X 12(12) 10(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
24 160N 1127W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
36 170N 1140W 34 X 4( 4) 40(44) 10(54) 4(58) 2(60) X(60)
36 170N 1140W 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26)
36 170N 1140W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
48 180N 1145W 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 18(43) 10(53) 2(55) X(55)
48 180N 1145W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22)
48 180N 1145W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
72 195N 1145W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 17(37) 3(40) X(40)
72 195N 1145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 2(14) X(14)
72 195N 1145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
96 205N 1140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 16(26) 5(31) X(31)
96 205N 1140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
96 205N 1140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
120 215N 1135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 6(21) 1(22)
120 215N 1135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
120 215N 1135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45 50 60 60 60 50 40
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:04 UTC