ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007 CONVECTION FLARED UP NEAR AND WEST OF THE CENTER OF GIL THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEING COVERED BY THE OVERCAST FOR A WHILE. THE LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS ARE STARTING TO WARM...SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTIVE BURST MAY BE ENDING. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT PENDING EITHER PERSISTENT OF THE CONVECTION OR OTHER DATA SHOWING ACTUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. GIL IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE LONGER-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. GIL IS MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 12-24 HR...WITH FINAL DISSIPATION IN 72 HR OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 19.3N 122.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 19.6N 123.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 03/0000Z 20.0N 125.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.2N 126.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 04/0000Z 20.4N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/0000Z 20.5N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC