ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007 200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2007 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE DURING THE DAY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE INTENSE...THOUGH RECENTLY HAS WANED A BIT. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM MASS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...BUT AMSU AND LOCAL OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GIL...THE SEVENTH STORM IN A RATHER QUIET EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE STORM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS. THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE...NOW ESTIMATED AT 285/10. THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD FORCE A MOTION MORE TO THE WEST BY LATE TOMORROW. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 19.7N 110.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 20.2N 118.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 122.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC